My buddy Chuck Jaffe had a lovely turn of phrase in his recent MarketWatch column. Chuck wrote:
While investors understood that bad times were possible — that the huge spikes of good years could become the awful daggers of a downturn — they never really expected to have it happen to their own portfolio.
The thing is, we’ve been through this before–a few times. Those past experiences have informed the rules that aspiring planners are taught in the Certified Financial Planner training courses. Those rules include:
1. Don’t put money in the market if you can’t leave it alone for at least 10 years. I notice that some planners over the years have shortened that time horizon to five years. The bear market we’re wrestling with today may change their minds.
2. Diversify. I’m hearing complaints that “diversification doesn’t work,” and it’s true that in crisis situations, like this one, all types of stocks drop together. Which is why you diversify into bonds (including government bonds) and cash, as well. Those of us who have some Treasuries and cash in our portfolio are still getting our butts whupped, but not as much as those who thought fixed-income investments were for weenies.
3. Stay invested. This is the hardest part. We feel bad when we lose money–even though these losses are just on paper, and they’re no more real than our former gains were. Losses or gains only become real when we “realize” them, or sell.
But we want to feel better, and avoiding further losses can feel like the right thing to do.
It may be the right thing, if you have money in the market that should never have been at risk, or if you’re recently retired or about to retire. That’s something to take up with a fee-only financial planner.
For the rest of us, though, the problem is that we won’t know when to get back in, any more than we knew when to get out. By the time we feel comfortable enough to invest our money again, we’ll have missed most of the gains.
And there will be gains again, some day. When that day comes, we’ll hopefully be a little wiser about risk.
TAGS: financial crisis, Investing, risk, Risk-taking